Jonathan Bernstein

Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who writes about American politics, especially the presidency, Congress, parties and elections.

Recent Articles

Will Zombie Marco Rubio Win in 2016?

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Gage Skidmore / Flickr If there’s one simple lesson from past presidential elections I wish reporters and pundits could learn, it’s this: Stop declaring candidacies dead before the primary even starts! Mistakes during the invisible primary can doom a campaign. But they usually don’t. The current burial that has me annoyed is the one for Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who received terrible reviews for his handling of immigration reform this year. Rubio, up to that point, had been considered by The Great Mentioner as a very possible nominee. Now, however, you can’t shake a stick without coming across mentions of his early demise. I have no idea whether Rubio will be running for president once the Iowa caucuses roll around, let alone whether he’ll be a strong competitor. What I do know is that the press is far too quick to write off presidential-nomination candidates who encounter setbacks. Perhaps the classic case is their premature burial of John McCain in...

But What Does Iran Mean for 2016?

AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi
AP Photo/Lior Mizrahi, Pool T here are two things to say about the electoral effect of the Iran deal. Barck Obama isn’t going to be up for re-election. Still, his approval rating will matter for Democrats in both 2014 and 2016. The first thing—and it’s correct, as far as it goes—is that the deal won’t have any electoral effect, whatever happens. Smart analysts know that voters just don’t care very much about foreign policy. And this one … well, it’s pretty distant from the concerns of most voters. Iran’s nuclear program has been in the news for a long time, but it’s not headline stuff for the most part. No matter how much of a fuss there is about it in the press this week, most voters won’t engage. The blunt truth is that this too will be gone from the headlines before very long, anyway. Without most voters paying any attention to it, that leaves only the most politically attentive, and they’ll divide the way...

How Republicans Lost the Chance to Win Obamacare

AP Photo/Dylan Lovan
AP Photo/The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services The argument for the national government administering things over the states has always been summed up, I thought, by an old James Carville joke: I’ll race you from Disneyland to DisneyWorld. I get to take the federal roads. That joke, however, has been turned upside down by implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The whole sequence has been weird. After all, the law—as a concession to moderate Democrats who feared Republican attacks about a federal-government takeover—wound up asking the states, and not the federal government, to run the exchanges. But Republican-led states refused to do so. When the federal-run crashed, the odd result is that the current winners of the federalism battle—which is often waged, at least rhetorically, by Republicans dead set on keeping the feds out of their local government—are Democratic states such as California and New York where...

Who’s on First? Under Boehner, It’s Always the Senate.

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
If someone is looking for the perfect example of how the 113th Congress functions, it doesn’t get much better than last week. The Senate beat back a filibuster to pass a popular bill with support from every Democrat in the chamber and a handful of Republicans. The House? Oh, it took the week off. And so the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) joins the immigration bill in the queue for House action, with neither of them—so far—expected to move any further. Despite the fact that both would win if voted on. But don’t blame the Hastert Rule—the informal rule in the House of Representatives that Speaker John Boehner can only bring to the floor items supported by a majority of his party. This is all about the Boehner Rule: The Senate goes first. That’s been the way that the speaker has dealt with his next-to-impossible situation all year (as I discussed back in March). It’s a problem caused by his dysfunctional conference, which is unable to...

Long Live the Kludge

AP Photo/The Daily Progress, Jonna Spelbring
Last week’s buzzword was “kludge,” as everyone from Paul Krugman to Michael Lind decided that the Affordable Care Act was a perfect example of “What’s Wrong With America.” It’s an argument that Steven Teles made recently in an important essay at National Affairs . For Teles, a political scientist from Johns Hopkins, the way the United States is governed has become increasingly incoherent and even unworkable in policy domain after policy domain. His diagnosis is that our current state of affairs is the result of the accumulation of “kludges”—a term from computer programming for temporary patches. U.S. policy is dominated, he argues, by these ad hoc workarounds, rather than systematic policies. In the short run, make-do kludges are often good enough. But over time, they pile up, one upon another, and the result eventually becomes impossible for anyone to make sense of. Moreover, even when total policy catastrophe is avoided, ad...